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Madison WI Condo Market Trends: Aug 2018 (in progress)

This report provides objective information on the latest condo market trends in Madison, Wisconsin. The city of Madison represents the largest market in South Central Wisconsin, and serves as a good indicator for the market across all of Dane County. All of our statistics are compiled from the South Central Wisconsin Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Unless noted otherwise, all of the statistics below are updated through August, 2018.

For our monthly report on the single family home market, click here. View all Madison condos for sale here

Madison WI Condo Market Summary - Aug, 2018

  • Madison condo sales are being restricted due to a lack of supply in the open market. 
  • Accepted offers are trending lower due to a lack of inventory for sale.  
  • Expired listings were the lowest on record through the month of August. 
  • The Madison condo listing expiration rate was the lowest ever through the month of August. 
  • New condo listings were down slightly in August and remained low by historical standards. Lower listing activity is limiting the supply of available condos and contributing to the rise in local condo prices. 
  • As of 9/18/18, only 2.1 months of supply are available for sale in the local condo market. This low level of condo inventory indicates a good sellers' market, especially for condominiums priced below $300,000. 
  • Condo days on market through the month of August were the lowest on record. 
  • Madison condo prices are higher through the month of August. The price per square foot is up 6% from 2018. The average price is up by 9 percent. 
  • Competing offers continue to occur with greater frequency. The percentage of competing offers increased from 34% through June of 2017 to 36% through June of 2018.   
  • In 2018, 20% of Madison condo sales went to cash buyers through the month of June. Cash offers are most common for condos priced above $250,000. Many down-sizing Baby Boomers have the means to pay cash for a higher-priced condominium. We expect the percentage of cash offers to increase in 2018 due to low supply in the Madison condo market. 

Madison WI Condo Sales - August, 2018

A total of 105 Madison condos sold via the MLS in the month of August, which was the lowest sales total since 2015. Sales would be higher if more supply was available in the market. 

Year-to-date through August, a total of 737 Madison condo listings sold via the MLS. As the graph below shows, condo sales have essentially plateaued in Madison. 

  

On an annual basis, a total of 1,044 Madison condo listings sold in 2017, a decease from the 1,093 listings sold in 2016. 

Annual Madison Condo Sales

Madison Condo Sales: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual sold Madison condo listings for every time period dating back to January, 2000. 

Madison Condo Accepted Offers - Aug, 2018

Accepted offers (or pending condo sales) provide an indication of the number of closings that can be expected in the months ahead. A total of 91 Madison condo listings received accepted offers in the month of August. This was well below the historical high. 

A total of 777 Madison condos received accepted offers year-to-date through the month of August. Accepted offers would be higher if more supply was available for sale. 

A total of 1,022 Madison condo listings received accepted offers in 2017. 

 

This graph shows Madison condo accepted offers by week in 2017. As the graph below shows, accepted offer activity peaks in the Spring and troughs in the month of December. This is an important graph for sellers to understand prior to listing their condo for sale.

Madison Condo Accepted Offers by Week

This graph shows accepted offer activity by month. 

 

Madison Condo Accepted Offers: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

The table below shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison condo accepted offer totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000. 

Madison Expired Condo Listings - Aug, 2018

A listing "expires" when it does not sell by the end date specified in the listing contract. A large number of expired listings indicates a strong buyers' market. A low number of expired listings indicates a strong sellers' market.

Expired listings are trending near historically low levels and indicative of a sellers' market. Only 2 Madison condo listings expired in the month of August. This was the lowest total on record for the month. 

A total of 34 Madison condo listings expired year-to-date through the month of August, which was the lowest on record.  

A total of 153 Madison condo listings expired without selling in 2017. This represents the second lowest expired listing total on record. 

 

Madison Expired Condo Listings: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual expired condo totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000. The green data points show expired listings have been trending along a downward path since 2009. Expired Madison condo listings decreased every month in 2016 and were up and down in 2017. Expired listings are on pace to reach new record lows in 2018. 

Madison Condo Listing Expiration Rate - Aug, 2018

The Madison condo listing expiration rate is trending at historically low levels. The expiration rate in the month of August was only 2%.  

The year-to-date condo expiration rate through the month of August was 4% - the lowest percentage on record. 

The annual condo listing expiration rate in 2017 was 13%. This was the second lowest annual rate on record. 

 

Madison Condo Listing Expiration Rate: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual condo listing expiration rate for every time period dating back to January, 2000. As the green data points show, expiration rates have been trending lower on a year-over-year basis since the summer of 2011. The month of January, 2017 was an aberration due to the large number of Weston Place condos all expiring on January 1st.  

Madison Condo New Listings - August, 2018

The number of new listings entering the Madison condo market was subdued in August. A total of 107 condo listings entered the market - down from the 114 listings in August of 2017.  

Year-to-date, a total of 863 new listings entered the Madison condo market through the month of August. As the graph below shows, the number of new listings entering the condo market has moderated since the housing bubble hit in 2008. 

A total of 1,067 new listings entered the Madison condo market in 2018. This was a low level by historical standards.  

The graph below shows the number of new Madison condo listings by week for the 2017 calendar year. 

 

Madison Condo New Listings: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

This table shows the number of new Madison condo listings by month dating back to January, 2000. A green data point indicates an increase in new listings. A red data point indicates a decrease. New listings decreased 10 of 12 months in 2017, and are up by only 1% in 2018.

Madison WI Condo Inventory as of 9/18/18

This table offers an excellent snapshot of our local condo market. The price ranges highlighted in yellow indicate segments of the market that are particularly favorable to sellers. Taking accepted offers into account, all of the price ranges under $300,000 have less than two months of available supply (refer to the column on the far right). Overall, 33% of all Madison condo listings have an accepted offer. Across all price ranges, there are only 2.1 months of inventory available in the Madison condo market as of September 18th, 2018. Note, months of inventory do vary by price range. 

This graph shows Madison condo supply dating back to July of 2015. Inventory levels edged above 2 months of supply for the first time since December of 2016. 

This graph shows how active condo listings have changed from August of 2016 to August of 2018. Active condo listings have decreased by 22% over the 2 year period. 

This graph shows the percent of Madison condo listings with accepted offers dating back to October, 2015. Each bar on the graph represent a snapshot of the market taken mid-month. In September of 2018, 33% of all Madison condo listings had an accepted offer, compared to 31% in September of 2017. Note how the percentage of listings with accepted offers is typically highest in the spring and early summer months. 

Madison WI Condos - Days on Market - Aug, 2018

How long does it take to sell a condo in Madison? The days on market statistic is represented by the number of days that pass from the listing start date to the listing accepted offer date. Days on market for Madison condos are now trending along historically low levels. The average for the month of August was only 22 days. This was the lowest ever for the month of August. 

Year-to-date, the average Madison condo days on market through the month of August was only 35 days. We expect the days on market statistic to continue to trend lower in 2018 based on current supply and demand trends. 

The average condo days on market for all of 2017 was only 40 days. This annual average was the lowest on record. 

Madison Condo Days on Market: January, 2000 - Aug, 2018

This table shows the average condo days on market by month dating back to January, 2000. As the green data points show, the days on market for Madison condos have been trending much lower since 2014. 

Madison WI Condo Prices - August, 2018

Our best measure of condo value is the price per square foot. In 2017, the average Madison condo price per square foot increased for the fith straight year. Condo prices bottomed out in 2012 and began to rise again with increasing demand and falling supply. The graph below shows the average price per square foot for every year dating back to the year 2000. Madison condo prices in 2017 were the highest on record. We expect the price per square foot to continue rising in 2018 based on current condo market dynamics. 

2017 Madison Condo Price per Square Ft

The average price per square foot in the month of August was $178. This was the second highest price total on record. We expect condo prices to remain elevated throughout 2018 based on current supply and demand trends.  

Year-to-date through August, the average price per square foot was $165. This was up 6% from the year-to-date price in August of 2017. 

Historical Madison Condo Prices through August, 2018

This table shows the percent change in the price per square foot for every time period dating back to January, 2000. The price per square foot increased by 10% in 2017, and is on pace to rise substantially again in 2018. 

Madison Average Condo Price - June, 2018 

The average Madison condo price in the month of July was $233,765 - which was the highest on record. The average condo price can fluctuate greatly from month-to-month due to the relatively low number of sales compared to the single family home market. A few high-end or low-end condo sales can have a big impact on the average price in any given month. Therefore focus on the long-term trend over placing too much emphasis on any given month.  

Year-to-date, the average Madison condo price was $226,806 through the month of July. This was the highest year-to-date total on record. 

The average condo price for all of 2017 was $214,796, representing a new high for the Madison condo market.

Annual Madison Average Condo Price 2017

Madison Condo Prices: January, 2000 - July, 2018

This table shows the percent increase/decrease in the average condo price for every month dating back to January, 2000. The average Madison condo price is up 9% through the month of July. 

Madison Condos - % with Competing Offers - June, 2018

This statistic measures the percentage of condo listings that receive multiple offers. As the graph below shows, the percentage decreased from 44% in June of 2017 to 40% in June of 2018. Competing offers are occurring more frequently as supply remains low throughout Dane County. Multiple offers are most common in the Spring and early Summer and least common in the Fall and early Winter.   

Competing Offers by Price Range: June, 2018

Which price ranges are the most competitive for condo buyers? The graph below shows the percentage of accepted offers that involve competition from multiple buyers. Overall, 34% of accepted offers in 2017 involved competition from multiple buyers. This number has jumped to 36% in 2018. 

Madison Condos - Percent of Sales with Cash Offers - July, 2018

Year-to-date through July, 20% of all Madison condo sales involved cash offers. We expect the percentage of cash offers to increase in 2018 due to the low levels of supply in the Madison area. 

 

This graph shows the percent of closings with cash offers by price range - through the month of July. Typically, the higher price categories are most likely to involve a cash offer. This is due to down-sizing Baby Boomers with large savings accounts. Many buyers in this demographic have the means to pay cash for a higher priced condominium. 

This last last graph shows the annual percentage of Madison condo sales with cash offers - through 2017. 

About the Author

Dan Miller has been studying and reporting on the Madison condo market since 2007. Please feel free to contact Dan with any questions you have about your local condo market.